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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/KY...UTAH REGION...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OREGON/SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and
the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms
are also expected across the Utah region and over parts of western
Oregon into southwest Washington. Wind and hail are the primary
threats.

...Ohio Valley/KY...

Great Lakes/Midwest trough will progress east today and extend from
Lower MI-KY by 18/00z. High-level diffluent flow will be noted
across the OH Valley into the Mid South which will prove favorable
for scattered robust convection, especially by early afternoon as
the boundary layer destabilizes with daytime heating. Strength of
this feature will encourage a notable synoptic front to advance into
OH/western KY by late afternoon, coincident with favorable upper
diffluence. Latest model guidance suggests a considerable amount of
convection will likely evolve along/ahead the wind shift,
concentrated within a zone of stronger instability -- KY/southern
OH. While some supercell potential does exist across this region,
the majority of storms will likely be multicellular with clusters
co*mon. Wind/hail are expected with this activity.

...Utah Region...

Well-defined mid-level short-wave trough is lifting north across the
lower CO River Valley late this evening. With the upper ridge
holding across the southern Rockies, this feature will progress
across UT early in the period before shifting into eastern
ID/southwest WY by late afternoon. Latest hr** model guidance
actually reflects this short wave well with all members exhibiting
substantial convection near the mid-level vort over southeast NV at
sunrise. This activity will spread/develop northeast across UT
during the day within a strongly sheared environment. Though, lapse
rates will be seasonally weak given the convective coverage and
cloud cover. Even so, robust organized updrafts are expected and
wind should be the primary threat with these storms.

...Western OR/Southwest WA...

Strong 500mb speed max will round the base of the offshore trough
and translate across northern CA into eastern OR by early evening.
Left exit region of this feature will aid UVV near the higher
terrain and cooling/moistening mid-levels will contribute to modest
buoyancy along the cyclonic side of the speed max. Forecast
soundings exhibit strongly sheared profiles and isolated supercells
are expected to develop, then spread north-northeast as a short-wave
trough ejects into southern WA. Hail/wind are possible with these
storms.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/17/2024