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Mesoscale Discussion 1926
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 170145Z - 170245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of
northwestern AR. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a few
instances of large hail are also possible. A WW will be needed soon
to address the impending severe threat.

DISCUSSION...A robust multicellular cluster (perhaps with embedded
transient supercells) continues to rapidly propagate to the
southeast. Multiple instances of 70-80 mph gusts and wind damage
have been reported with this cluster, and MRMS MESH suggests that at
least some marginally severe hail may be falling in the stronger
storm cores. Preceding these storms is a thermodynamic airmass
characterized by 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE amid only slowly increasing
MLCINH. Effective bulk shear values are likely exceeding 30 kts per
00Z mesoanalysis, which is sufficient for continued storm
organization and intensity given the aforementioned buoyancy. Though
MLCINH should ultimately tame severe potential later tonight, at
least some concentrated severe wind/hail threat may still
materialize over the next couple of hours. A WW issuance will be
needed soon to address the near-term severe threat.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 08/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   35459441 36189344 36449288 36229238 35719219 35369230
            35039262 34929309 34939366 34999419 35459441