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Mesoscale Discussion 1924
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...Central and northern Oklahoma into far northwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628...

Valid 162300Z - 170030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 628. At least a few instances of severe wind or hail may
acco*pany the stronger storms over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters and transient supercells have
percolated in intensity from far western OK into far northwestern AR
over the past few hours. At the moment, a couple of strong
thunderstorm clusters are ongoing along diffuse baroclinic
boundaries, were surface temperatures are in the upper 90s to low
100s F, contributing to 8.5-9.5 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates. As
such, the more intense, persistent updrafts may support a large-hail
threat until they beco*e outflow dominant, when severe gusts beco*e
the main concern. However, deep-layer ascent/shear remain weak, so
thunderstorms may continue to struggle to maintain intensity, with
the severe threat perhaps beco*ing gradually more isolated through
the evening.

..Squitieri.. 08/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35790001 36779902 37039498 36729390 36239357 35889366
            35669546 35249766 35169872 35169943 35199997 35790001