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Mesoscale Discussion 1923
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162231Z - 170030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds locally -- with potential for a gust or two
near severe levels -- can be expected over the next couple of hours
across a portion of far southeastern Wisconsin and into northern
Illinois.  WW issuance is not expected, due to anticipated
marginal/isolated nature of the risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that a semi-organized band of
storms has developed over northwestern Illinois, ahead of a subtle,
eastward-moving mid-level vort max embedded within the cyclonic flow
surrounding the western Lake Superior upper low.  A narrow axis of
1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is indicated just ahead of the band of
storms, which suggests continuation -- and possible/slight
strengthening over the next 1 to 2 hours.  

The latest VWP from the KLOT (Chicago, IL) WSR-88D shows flow weakly
veering from west-southwesterly to west-northwesterly with height,
and increasing to around 35 kt at mid levels.  This should allow
storms to progress into the Chicago -- and possibly Milwaukee --
vicinity, acco*panied by gusty winds.  While a couple of gusts could
near or reach severe levels, risk should remain sparse and marginal,
and thus insufficient to warrant WW consideration.

..Goss/Edwards.. 08/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41899033 42458943 43088879 42888810 41938760 41438790
            41418935 41899033