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Mesoscale Discussion 1921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...south-central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161907Z - 162100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional threat of wind and hail will be possible
downstream of WW627 as long-lived supercell and potential for
additional convection develops continues east and southeast.

DISCUSSION...An elevated long-lived supercell continues to track
east along trailing outflow in south-central Kansas south of
Wichita. Visible satellite has shown attempts at new cell
development on the southern flank of outflow as it sags southward
towards northern Oklahoma. Modified soundings would suggest that the
downstream environment may only be weakly capped, as temperatures
have warmed into the low to mid 90s across much of eastern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma. A conditional threat of large hail and
damaging wind may extend downstream with further warming and
weakening of capping occurs and supercells can beco*e surface based,
given MLCAPE around 1000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear 35-40 kts.
This area is being monitored for a downstream watch should
intensification occur. A local extension of WW627 may be needed in
south-central Kansas.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36809765 36419729 36219684 36099647 36049597 36069558
            36309499 36599467 36949495 37299541 37819620 37889696
            37789767 37219781 36809765