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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across
parts of the Southeast, centered on central to south Alabama into
central/eastern North Carolina, during Sunday afternoon to early
evening.

...Deep South to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States...
A slow-moving mid/upper trough, with its axis over the Lower Great
Lakes, is largely progged to amplify as a mid/upper jetlet digs
towards the basal portion of the trough. This will result in the
belt of enhanced west-southwesterly to northwesterly mid-level flow
shifting south across the Southeast by Sunday afternoon. Occluded
surface cyclone should drift east across southern ON into  western
NY. An arcing cold front will largely extend south across the
Mid-Atlantic to Southeast before trailing westward over the Deep
South to Lower MS Valley. The co*bination of moderate to strong
buoyancy with a moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear should be
greatest across parts of MS to GA. A greater probability for
thunderstorm development is expected from the Carolinas northward. A
corridor of favorable overlap for a mixed mode of clusters and a few
supercells is apparent from parts of central/south AL into
central/eastern NC. Strong to isolated severe gusts capable of
producing scattered damaging winds should be the primary threat
during the afternoon to early evening. Isolated large hail will also
be possible, especially with western extent. 

...Central/northern High Plains...
A mid/upper ridge will remain anchored across the High Plains
between the amplifying trough over the East and a trough along the
Pacific Northwest coast. A plume of rich boundary-layer moisture
will persist from the Ozarks into the central High Plains within a
modest northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Elevated convection,
driven by low-level warm theta-e advection, should be ongoing at 12Z
Sunday across parts of central NE and far southern SD. This activity
may strengthen during the morning with a threat for isolated severe
hail as it gradually sinks southward. At least isolated
surface-based storms should develop off the higher terrain during
the afternoon and gradually move east across the High Plains into
the evening. Localized severe wind/hail will be possible.

..Grams.. 08/16/2024