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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Sunday from the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas west-southwestward into much of the Southeast. A
marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of the
central and northern High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern
and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, an associated
cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the Atlantic Coastal
Plains, and southeastward into the southeastern states. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F, which will
contribute to moderate instability across a broad area by afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the
boundary. Some convection may also develop southeastward into the
moist airmass. Although the upper-level trough will likely provide
some support for convective development, the area ahead of the
trough from the Mid-Atlantic southeastward into the eastern Gulf
Coast states is forecast to have marginal deep-layer shear for
severe storms. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible near and
after peak heating, mainly as low-level lapse rates beco*e steep in
the late afternoon.

Further west into the lower Mississippi Valley, moderate instability
is expected to develop by afternoon. Mid-level flow behind the
trough will be northwesterly. This will result in stronger
deep-layer shear, which should be sufficient for an isolated severe
threat. The main uncertainty on Sunday in the lower Mississippi
Valley is how instability will be distributed by afternoon. Some
model solutions suggest that a cluster of storms will develop early
in the day, which could negatively impact instability across parts
of the region. Areas that can avoid this negative impact could have
potential for severe wind gusts and hail during the afternoon.

...Central and Northern High Plains.
An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the High Plains on
Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a somewhat moist airmass should be in
place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s and 60s F. As surface
temperature warm on Sunday, isolated thunderstorm development will
be possible across much of the central High Plains. Forecast
soundings Sunday afternoon from eastern Colorado northward into
western South Dakota have steep low-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear. This suggest an isolated severe threat will be
possible. However, subsidence associated with the ridge will
negatively impact convective development, and any severe threat
should remain marginal.

..Broyles.. 08/16/2024