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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated-scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions
of the central and southern Plains, extending into northwest
Arkansas. Less concentrated severe is possible across the Midwest
into the Tennessee Valley.

...Central/Southern Plains Region...

MS Valley trough is forecast to shift into the upper Great
Lakes/Midwest region by late afternoon while a dominant upper
anticyclone will hold across the southern Rockies. This lead trough
will result in a pronounced surface front arcing across the
Ozarks-southern KS-northeast CO/NE Panhandle at peak heating.
Additionally, there is some indication that a weak short-wave trough
may top the southern Rockies ridge and turn southeast along this
frontal zone during the latter half of the period. Latest model
guidance suggests very strong surface heating will lead to steep
0-3km lapse rates across the central High Plains into northern OK.
Forecast soundings depict convective temperatures being breached by
22-23z as surface readings rise through the upper 90s/100F. This
boundary should serve as the focus for robust convection shortly
after peak heating. Additionally, any storms that develop should
grow upscale during the evening as the LLJ is expected to increase
across the TX Panhandle into southeast KS in response to the
ridge-topping short wave. Initial storm mode may be high based, but
potentially supercellular in nature. However, convection should
gradually expand in areal coverage and storm mergers are expected
along a favorable corridor of low-level warm advection. As a result,
one or more MCSs should evolve which will propagate southeast along
the front toward the Ozarks during the overnight hours. Severe gusts
and very large hail could be noted across the Plains before MCS
maturation.

...Midwest/TN Valley...

Scattered robust convection is currently ongoing ahead of the MS
Valley trough, notably across IL into southern MO. This activity
will propagate downstream ahead of the progressive trough and likely
be ongoing at the start of the day1 period, especially across the
lower OH Valley along the nose of a veered LLJ. Remnants of this
convection should propagate southeast across middle TN as the LLJ
weakens. With 500mb flow forecast to strengthen there is some
concern this activity could advance further into the northern Gulf
States than currently anticipated. Some organization is also
possible which may necessitate higher severe probabilities. However,
nature/extent of the early-day MCS remains a bit too uncertain to
warrant more than MRGL at this time.

A narrow corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating is expected
across eastern IA/northwest IL into extreme southern WI by mid day.
This should aid buoyancy and isolated strong/severe thunderstorms
are expected to develop immediately ahead of the upper low.
Hail/wind are possible with storms that evolve along this corridor
of stronger instability.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/16/2024