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Mesoscale Discussion 1914
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...southern Illinois...and
western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624...

Valid 160147Z - 160345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624
continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe risk (hail/wind) continues across portions of
the southern Illinois area, with additional strong storms
approaching from the west.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a continued/gradual decrease in
overall convective coverage/intensity across southern Illinois,
though one storm has evolved into a small, bowing cluster that has
accelerated southward and is now in the process of beginning to
cross the Ohio River into far western Kentucky.  Locally
gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail will remain possible with
this cluster, in the short term.

Meanwhile, a separate area of strong/locally severe storms advancing
eastward across the Ozarks will begin moving into western portions
of WW 624 (out of WW 625) in the next hour.  With 2000 to 3000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE indicated by RAP-based objective analysis across
the WW area, expect this convection to remain capable of producing
locally strong/damaging wind gusts over the next couple of hours.

..Goss.. 08/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36878782 36638907 36799177 37229219 38199156 38649030
            38358947 36878782