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Mesoscale Discussion 1907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 151814Z - 152015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms, with strongest
storms gradually consolidating on its southern flank, may continue
to pose a risk for severe hail and a few strong surface gusts across
the Interstate 80 corridor of western Iowa and adjacent eastern
Nebraska through 4-5 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has undergone a recent increase
near the Norfolk vicinity of northeastern Nebraska.  This is
occurring in the presence of weak low-level cold advection, to the
west of a surface trough axis shifting southeastward through the
central Great Plains and mid to lower Missouri Valley region. 
However, the boundary-layer remains relatively moist, and appears
supportive of CAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg, beneath the
leading edge of a -10 to -12C 500 mb cold pool, associated with a
notable mid-level perturbation pivoting southeastward and eastward
across southern portions of the mid Missouri Valley.  Generally
within the exit region of a 40-70+ kt westerly jet streak in the
500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear appears sufficient for supercell
structures with potential to produce severe hail.  With continuing
insolation in advance of activity, it is possible that vigorous
thunderstorm development will be maintained and perhaps increase
further as the mid-level forcing spreads into the Interstate 80
corridor of western Iowa through 21-22Z.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41959723 42419687 42259409 41119401 40999577 41179679
            41389756 41959723