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Mesoscale Discussion 1906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Areas affected...New Hampshire...Vermont...into
Massachusetts...eastern New York State...c*nnecticut and Rhode
island

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151557Z - 151830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development appears probable
through 3-5 PM EDT, with widely scattered stronger storms
acco*panied by a risk for localized, potentially damaging,
downbursts and perhaps some small hail.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer destabilization is underway across much
of western New England into the Adirondacks and Catskills, with
continuing insolation beneath the western flank of a modest
mid-level cold pool associated with a slowly moving mid/upper trough
near the Atlantic Seaboard.  Forcing for ascent, associated with one
or two perturbations pivoting through this regime, has been
supporting some thunderstorm activity spreading southward within
generally light (10-20 kt) northerly deep-layer mean flow across
western Maine, with consolidating surface outflow slowly beginning
to spread southwestward into western New England.

With further boundary-layer destabilization, which may include CAPE
increasing up to 1500+ J/kg, and weakening of mid-level inhibition,
model output suggests that the outflow boundary, and orographic
forcing along the higher terrain to the west, will provide a focus
for increasing thunderstorm development through 19-21Z.   Despite
the weak nature of the wind fields and shear, modestly steep
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates evident in forecast soundings may
allow for sufficient negative buoyancy in downdrafts to support
localized damaging surface gusts in stronger storms.  Some small to
marginally severe hail might also not be out of the question.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   45807107 44967115 44277135 43307060 42117106 41917201
            42197395 43337459 44067379 44887299 45287238 45807107