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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of
convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms
observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of
thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR
Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance
suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability
for wetting rainfall co*pared to convection that occurred over the
previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable
overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should
support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of
heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the
potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the
risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below
regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns.

..Moore.. 08/15/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest,
bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry
thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning
of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for
thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z),
when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop
over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western
Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th
percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and
relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some
wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. 

...Dry/Windy...
Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and
western Utah, but will mostly be confined to
diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap
with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...