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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
As an upper trough moves slowly eastward over the eastern CONUS, an
isolated severe threat may continue on Day 4/Sunday across parts of
the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast along/ahead of a cold front.
However, the potential stabilizing effects of prior convection,
along with generally modest deep-layer shear, render low confidence
in a more organized severe/damaging wind threat on Sunday. Lower
severe potential is anticipated across the eastern states on Day
5/Monday as the upper trough progresses eastward and the cold front
moves mostly offshore. Upper ridging will likely remain prominent
across much of the Rockies and Plains through at least early next
week, while an upper trough/low generally remains centered off the
coast of the Pacific Northwest. Some chance for severe thunderstorms
may exist over interior portions of the Northwest into parts of the
northern Rockies/Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest next week. But,
predictability of various mid-level perturbations that may encourage
robust thunderstorms remains low at this extended time frame.