Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible
late this afternoon through the evening across portions of the
middle Missouri Valley.

...MO Valley area this afternoon through tonight...
An MCV over northwest IA will continue eastward today, while
clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from central MO
to northern AR within a low-level warm advection regime.  Warm
advection will slowly weaken through the day, but convective outflow
with the central MO storm cluster may result in those storms
persisting well into the afternoon while spreading southward. 
Otherwise, outflow from the morning convection will slowly modify
from eastern KS into southeast NE, in advance of a midlevel
shortwave trough over the central High Plains, and an associated
surface cold front moving southeastward across northwest KS.  The
cold front and the front/outflow intersection will focus
thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening from central KS
to southeast NE/southwest IA, and storms will subsequently spread
eastward tonight as one or more storm clusters/MCSs across northern
MO/southern IA.

Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be maintained this
afternoon within the modifying outflow across the SLGT risk area,
where semi-discrete supercells and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible.  Isolated very large hail (2-2.5 inches in diameter) will
also with any persistent supercells, though the severe threat will
transition primarily to damaging winds (60-75 mph) by late evening
into tonight as storms grow upscale.  

Farther northwest, a separate clustering of storms is possible in
central SD, south of the ongoing convection across southern ND. 
Surface heating in cloud breaks and weak ascent downstream from an
ejecting midlevel trough will help focus thunderstorm development by
21-00z.  Low-midlevel vertical shear will not be particularly strong
and flow aloft will be strongly backed, which suggests a fairly
quick growth into a line segment.  Isolated damaging gusts and large
hail will be possible for a few hours late this afternoon/evening.

...WY and vicinity this afternoon...
An embedded vorticity maximum over southeast ID will progress
eastward over WY this afternoon/evening.  There will be sufficient
low-midlevel moisture and surface heating for high-based
thunderstorm development by early afternoon in advance of the
vorticity maximum.  Given steep low-level lapse rates and modest
enhancement to midlevel flow (near 30 kt), strong outflow winds of
50-60 mph will be possible with this convection through the
afternoon.

..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/14/2024