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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern
Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and
central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina.

...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High
Plains...
Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move
through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist
across the West today.  A residual plume of seasonably high moisture
resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High
Plains.  The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the
OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this
afternoon/evening.  Heating will contribute to weak to moderate
instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the
High Plains.  Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to
develop by late this afternoon into the early evening.  A locally
greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT
where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode
of supercells/multicells.  However, some uncertainty remains due to
ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. 
Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely enco*pass
the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor.  Farther east and northeast, an isolated
threat for hail/wind will potentially acco*pany the stronger
late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the
evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster.

...Central Plains/lower MO Valley...
As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across
the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is
expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside
over central Kansas.  With moderate CAPE expected atop the
cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms
are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or
exceeding severe levels.  Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be
possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone.

...South Carolina...
Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone
draped from southern GA into the Carolinas.  A very moist airmass
sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (XXX lowest 100-mb mean mixing
ratio) will diurnally destabilize today.  Weak convergence via the
frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early
to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap.  A mid to upper-level
disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this
morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. 
Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in
some multicellular organization.  Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable
of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024