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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley.

...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley...
Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm
advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas
southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken
through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass.
In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place
along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to
south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater
low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface
dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO
Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist
low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong
instability across this area.

Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as
multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the
northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the
period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly
strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated
hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central
Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing
warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one
or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of
central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in
place across this area, which would potentially support more robust
updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance
for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario
occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore
opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the
northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley.

..Gleason.. 08/12/2024