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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally
low across the contiguous United States.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Upper ridging should prevail over much of the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains on Monday. Still, weak low-level convergence
along a surface lee trough, along with orographic lift over the
higher terrain, should encourage at least isolated convective
development by late Monday afternoon across parts of the
northern/central High Plains. Weak low-level flow should gradually
veer to westerly and modestly strengthen with height though
mid/upper levels across this region. Related deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain modest, which should generally limit updraft
organization. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with
initially high-based cores, the potential for a more organized
severe threat currently appears too low to include any severe
probabilities.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Elevated thunderstorms associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
trough and attendant low-level warm advection may be ongoing Monday
morning across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley.
This activity should remain sub-severe as it spreads eastward and
slowly weakens through the day. In its wake, moderate to locally
strong instability may develop along/near a front that should be
draped east to west somewhere from the Ozarks into southern KS, OK,
and the TX Panhandle. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain
minimal across much of this region behind the departing shortwave
trough. Still, if thunderstorms can form along the front, they could
produce some hail and strong/gusty winds given ample instability and
modest deep-layer shear. However, this potential remains too
conditional to include low severe probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/10/2024