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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions
of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble
guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification
of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This
will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean
troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the
Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate
across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the
Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture
from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest
predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and
southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds
increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions
(notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated
conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of
NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated
conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest
on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region.

..Moore.. 08/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...