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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and
uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some
threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in
the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC
and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning
of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through
its southern semicircle.  Farther south, a co*bination of monsoonal-
origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the
southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from
the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the
Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z.  Strong ridging
will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending
northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies.

As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther
southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal-
wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, beco*ing quasistationary
over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving
northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some
modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent
convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). 
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near
and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States.


...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley...
A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the
south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or
evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/
differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as
the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development
suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially
uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with
height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable
CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation.  North of the surface
front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may
develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley.  Progs are
inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/
orientation and upstream variability in available moisture.

..Edwards.. 08/09/2024