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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...New England...
Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis
east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence
Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low
into this cyclonic regime.  However, in general, it appears that one
initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western
Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating
low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the
remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by
Saturday night.  Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt
of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and
convective development associated with this regime will shift into
the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential
for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization.

...Elsewhere...
Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and
subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the
lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic
Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead
of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast
may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating.  This might
be acco*panied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development
Saturday afternoon.  

More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm
development appears probable above the western flank of the front,
across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided
by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through
Saturday night.

A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging
may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development, where boundary-layer instability beco*es diurnally
maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could
pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely
to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities
at less than 5 percent.  However, it is possible that this could
still change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2024