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Mesoscale Discussion 1858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...portions of coastal North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071817Z - 072045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon with the
more organized storms embedded in the rainbands of Debby. The
overall severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Modest surface heating has allowed for surface
temperatures to warm to the 79-81 F mark about 50 miles inland from
the coast. The LTX VAD profiler has recently shown over 300 m2/s2
0-1 km SRH in the vicinity of where low-topped supercells are
ongoing (southern NC coastline). As such, kinematics and current
storm mode does favor tornado production. However, boundary-layer
lapse rates remain poor (i.e. 5-5.5 C/km), so the instability needed
for low-level vorticity stretching is marginal at best. As such, any
tornadoes that manage to form should be brief and a WW issuance is
not expected.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   33837850 34527843 35307770 35737641 35727559 35467540
            35077566 34637642 34367715 33877786 33837850