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SPC MD 1851

SPC MD 1851

[html]MD 1851 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
       
MD 1851 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1851
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Areas affected...northwestern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070025Z - 070230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk of hail and damaging wind.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms is advancing southward
out of Canada.  This line is expected to continue into northwestern
North Dakota, with potential for further development ahead of this
line. Storms will continue southward into an environment
characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer shear
50-55 kts. This will support a few organized cells capable of large
hail (isolated up to 2 in) and damaging wind. MLCIN remains in place
across much of central North Dakota, which may limit the severe
potential with south and southeast extent. Due to the localized
nature of this threat, a watch is unlikely to be needed.

..Thornton/Smith.. 08/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   48730347 48970320 49000231 48960128 48980002 48500009
            47910003 47720176 47650307 47660348 47920389 48380381
            48530368 48730347


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Source: SPC MD 1851 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1851.html)