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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the
southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across
the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week.
Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective
precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday
across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur
in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches,
which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region
are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from
previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is
maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so
have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now.
Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too
marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this
time.

A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS
on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger
surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern
Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least
modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this
outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire
conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the
Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific
areas right now.

..Supinie.. 08/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...