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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...OVER MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana into western
South Dakota, as well as from parts of Ohio into New Jersey, and
across parts of Arizona.

...MI/IN/OH into the Northern Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...

A convectively enhanced shortwave impulse will track east from
southern Lake Michigan to southern New England today into this
evening. Enhanced midlevel flow associated with this feature will
overspread the region. At the surface, a stalled boundary will
extend west to east from northern IN/OH into central PA and
eventually offshore in the vicinity of Long Island. An MCV is
forecast to shift east along this boundary today into this evening.
A very moist airmass is in place, and surface dewpoints in the low
to possibly mid-70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to
strong instability. 

Forecast soundings depict steepening low-level lapse rates and PW
values near 2 inches. Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are
evident. Low-level hodographs will be somewhat enlarged and
favorably curved in the vicinity of the surface boundary and near
the eastward-developing MCV. This will support a risk for a few
tornadoes from northern OH into western PA. Otherwise,
cells/clusters will pose a risk for damaging gusts and marginal hail
across a broader area within the theta-e gradient/surface boundary
from IN to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. With time, and aided
enhanced ascent from the MCV, one or more bowing segments may
develop. If this occurs, damaging-wind potential could increase
across portions of the area. 

...Northern Rockies to the Northern High Plains...

An upper shortwave trough will develop south over western Canada and
the northern Rockies. This will flatten the upper ridge oriented
over the MT and the Dakotas and result in increasing mid/upper
westerly flow across the region. Cooling aloft will foster steep
midlevel lapse rates, while increasing midlevel moisture further
aids in weak to moderate destabilization over the region (MLCAPE
500-1500 J/kg). Initial convection is forecast to develop over the
higher terrain of western MT by early/mid afternoon. Around 25-35 kt
effective shear magnitudes will support organized cells. Meanwhile,
cooling midlevel temperatures and elongated/straight hodographs
should support isolated large hail with initial discrete storms.
With time, clustering and outflow consolidation is expected as
convection shifts east into central/eastern MT and eventually the
western Dakotas during the evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and
deeply mixed boundary layer will support strong to severe outflow
gusts with this activity.

...Central/Southern AZ...

Midlevel easterly flow will increase to around 20-25 kt as a weak
impulse migrates westward near the AZ/Mexican border. Steep low to
midlevel lapse rates and nearly 1.5 inch PW values will support
MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg amid 30 kt effective shear magnitudes.
Initial thunderstorm development is expected over higher terrain by
early to mid-afternoon. With time, clustering and outflow
consolidation should result in westward propagating convection
posing a risk for severe gusts into the evening.

...c*astal Carolinas...

Tropical Storm Debby will not move much today, remaining near
coastal SC. Overall tornado potential appears somewhat less co*pared
to the previous couple of days, as widespread heavy rain will limit
low-level destabilization. However, enhanced low-level shear within
the eastern semicircle may support a low risk for a tornado or two
across portions of coastal SC and southeast NC.

...Central High Plains...

A post-frontal upslope flow regime will maintain modest
boundary-layer moisture across the central High Plains vicinity.
Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE to
around 1500 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest,
vertically veering wind profiles will provide sufficient shear for
semi-organized cells. Convection will develop near higher terrain by
18-20z and spread east into the adjacent plains through the evening.
This activity will pose a risk for marginal wind/hail before
weakening after sunset.

..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/06/2024