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Mesoscale Discussion 1518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Areas affected...east-central and southeastern Alabama...northern
portions of the Florida Panhandle...and parts of central and
southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191814Z - 192015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue
developing across parts of the Southeast, with locally gusty winds
-- capable of producing tree/branch damage -- possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and visible satellite loops show storms
increasing in coverage across portions of Alabama and Georgia, and
vicinity, to the south and southeast of a short-wave trough shifting
southeastward across the southern Appalachians.  The storms are
evolving within a very moist (mid 70s dewpoints) airmass, where
insolation has helped to push mixed-layer CAPE values into the 2000
to 3000 J/kg range.

As storms continue to evolve, some organization is being observed --
aided by moderate/unidirectional westerly flow indicated across the
region on the southern periphery of the upper trough.  As outflow
boundaries merge favoring new/possibly vigorous updraft growth
locally, gusty winds -- capable of minor damage -- may occur
locally.  However, given expectations that such stronger gusts will
remain sparse/sporadic, and largely below official severe levels, WW
issuance is not likely to be required.

..Goss/Hart.. 07/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   33428480 32898369 32538128 31038189 30448442 30808709
            31098749 31858703 32538663 33208663 33718604 33428480