Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOWER MI INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over southeast lower
Michigan into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.  The primary severe risk
will be damaging gusts, though isolated hail and a tornado or two
are also possible.

...Synopsis...
A rather strong mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the
Great Lakes into parts of eastern Ontario and Quebec on Wednesday.
An associated surface low is forecast to deepen slightly as it moves
from near Lake Superior east-northeastward to near the
Ontario/Quebec border by the end of the period. A cold front
attendant to the surface low will move through parts of the lower
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will persist
over the southwest CONUS. 

...Southeast Lower MI into the OH Valley...
Strong diurnal heating of a moist environment is expected to result
in scattered thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon, along and
ahead of the cold front. Initial development may occur over eastern
lower MI by mid afternoon, in closer proximity to the
mid/upper-level trough, with storms expected to develop
southwestward across the OH Valley by late afternoon. Updraft
intensity may initially be limited by a dry midlevel environment,
but MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will eventually support robust storm
development. 

Moderate midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt
(greater with northward extent), sufficient to sustain organized
storm structures during the afternoon/evening. A couple of
supercells will be possible, with a tendency toward organized
cluster development with time. Modestly enhanced low-level shear
will support the potential for a couple tornadoes, especially if any
supercells can be sustained into the early evening. Otherwise,
damaging-wind gusts are expected to be the primary hazard, with some
potential for isolated hail given the magnitude of the instability
(despite rather warm midlevel temperatures). Some severe threat may
reach as far east as western PA and as far south as the mid-MS and
lower OH Valley before storms weaken Wednesday night. 

...North Dakota...
Diurnal heating and sufficient residual low-level moisture will
support weak-to-moderate destabilization within a post-frontal
regime across parts of ND. Limited large-scale ascent results in
uncertainty regarding storm coverage, but steep low-level lapse
rates would support an isolated severe gust risk with any sustained
convection.  

...Southern OK/North TX...
Very strong heating and increasing PW may result in isolated
high-based thunderstorm development across southern OK and north TX
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, in the vicinity of a
remnant surface boundary. Inverted-v profiles may support an
isolated downburst threat with this convection. 

...Southeast CO/Northeast NM...
Convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain of
northern NM/southeast CO Wednesday afternoon. Slightly enhanced
midlevel flow along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge
may support some weakly organized cells/clusters capable of isolated
severe gusts, and perhaps marginal hail at higher elevations.

..Dean.. 07/19/2022