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Mesoscale Discussion 1801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Areas affected...portions of the mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 031656Z - 031830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will likely pose a
risk for damaging/severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening.
Given the potential for organized storms, a WW is likely.

DISCUSSION...Across the eastern US, a broad positive-tilt mid-level
tough was observed via early afternoon WV overspreading a warming
and destabilizing air mass across the Mid Atlantic and central
Appalachians. Initial thunderstorm development has co*menced with
additional towering cumulus evident over the higher terrain and on
localized convergence features over much of the Northeast. As
surface temperatures continue to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s
F, very moist surface dewpoints in the 70s F will aid in eroding the
remaining minimal inhibition and continued storm development.
Moderate to large buoyancy is expected by mid afternoon with MLCAPE
of 1500-3000 J/kg more than adequate for strong updrafts. Enhanced
mid-level flow near the upper trough is also supporting 25-35 kt of
effective shear suggesting some potential for storm organization
into bands or clusters. While mid-level lapse rates are not overly
steep, generally 6.5-7 C/km the magnitude of buoyancy and potential
for more organized multi cells will foster a risk for stronger and
more sustained downdrafts. High PWATS and water loading will also
support stronger damaging wind potential with a risk for severe
gusts from the more organized and persistent cores.

Early sat/radar trends, coupled with recent HRRR data, suggest
increasing storm coverage over central PA into northern MD may
organize into several bands or more persistent multi-cell clusters
through the early afternoon. As they track east towards the I-95
corridor and establish stronger surface cold pools, damaging gusts
are likely. A few of the more persistent or organized linear bands
may also pose a risk for stronger severe gusts to 65-70 mph. With
the severe risk increasing through the afternoon, a WW is likely
needed.

..Lyons/Hart.. 08/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40347691 41617545 42007469 42077411 42017371 41907353
            41307344 40637351 40447392 39527426 39087484 38377679
            38277733 38217749 38007911 38247927 38607899 40267708
            40347691