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Mesoscale Discussion 1797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern VA and far northern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022134Z - 022300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to occasionally severe storms may pose
a risk for isolated wind damage late this afternoon into the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, scattered thunderstorms
ongoing over the central Appalachians have gradually coalesced into
a loosely organized cluster across parts of southern VA and far
northern NC. The environment ahead of this cluster is very warm and
unstable with temperatures in the 90s F and 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE.
However, very limited deep-layer shear is in place, with most VADs
showing generally less than 20 kt. While modest in organization, the
fairly pronounced cold pool moving into plentiful buoyancy should
continue to support strong transient updrafts. The high PWAT air
mass and pulse-like nature of the convection should also support
occasional stronger downdrafts within the collapsing cores. Isolated
damaging winds are possible along with a low-end risk of higher
gusts to 50-60 mph. Displaced away from deeper forcing for ascent
and flow aloft, storm organization will remain tied to the
propagation along and ahead of the outflow. This should remain
fairly limited in scope, and a WW is unlikely.

..Lyons/Smith.. 08/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37897821 38087755 38107730 37997671 37637633 37007605
            36817596 36547611 36367665 36327699 36337849 36547921
            37247870 37657841 37897821