Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break
down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level
short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the
northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the
wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much
of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and
settles into the southern Great Basin region. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern
Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region
through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least
marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually
trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. 

The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been
confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry
thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the
passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have
been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant
highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later
outlooks as mesoscale predictability beco*es more evident.
Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana co*bined with
higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels
should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10%
probabilities have been maintained.

On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this
outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger
to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential.

...Wind/RH...
Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions
of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated
fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub
regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low
to introduce any highlights at this time.

..Karstens.. 08/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...