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SPC MD 1514

SPC MD 1514

[html]MD 1514 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
       
MD 1514 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Areas affected...northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 182242Z - 190115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms will develop out of northeast Montana and
bring damaging winds and hail across the northern half of North
Dakota.

DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough will continue rapidly east
across MT, with surface low deepening over ND after 00Z. Scattered
strong to severe storms are already ongoing ahead of a cold front
across northeast MT, and these are expected to organize further as
they encounter stronger instability to the east. Strong deep-layer
shear and favorable storm relative inflow with backed surface winds
near the Canadian border will support a severe MCS and/or supercells
at times. Both damaging wind and hail appear likely, though a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out as the low-level jet increases this
evening.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 07/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   49030407 49020247 49010002 49029803 48639810 48239831
            47729890 47559962 47390110 47210305 47130402 49030407


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Source: SPC MD 1514 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1514.html)