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Mesoscale Discussion 1768
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...central MN and far northwest WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579...

Valid 311838Z - 312015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579
continues.

SUMMARY...A well developed bow echo will continue to produce
damaging gusts in the 60-80 mph range across west-central MN. This
activity will likely remain severe into portions of
northeast/east-central MN and perhaps far northwest WI, and a new
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed downstream from WW
579.

DISCUSSION...A well developed bow echo is moving across west-central
MN within a strongly unstable airmass characterized by dewpoints in
the low 70s F and steep midlevel lapse rates. While vertical shear
weakens with northward extent, latest mesoanalysis and region VWP
data suggest effective shear magnitudes have increased across
northeast/east-central MN. Furthermore, VWP data from KABR has
measured rear-inflow around 55-70 kt between 3-6 km. Given favorable
low-level moisture, strong instability and at least modestly
favorable vertical shear, expect this bow echo will continue
east/northeast and a downstream watch will likely be needed.

..Leitman.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   46539681 47369472 47269299 46629205 46149208 45789246
            45469365 45299505 45239639 45349678 45869706 46539681