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Mesoscale Discussion 1756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...parts of western and central Kentucky into middle
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 310109Z - 310315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Some potential for the evolution of an increasingly
organized cluster of storms with strong wind gusts exists across
middle Tennessee late this evening.

DISCUSSION...c*nglomerating convective outflow included notable 2
hourly surface pressures rises in excess of 4 mb in the 00Z surface
observation from Owensboro Ky.  There has been some intensification
of convection on the leading edge of this outflow, which has been
advancing southeastward around 25-30 kts, in line with the similar
magnitude northwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow.  

The most prominent recent cloud top cooling has been focused along
the southwestern flank of the outflow now approaching the
Hopkinsville KY vicinity.  This is where stronger
south-southwesterly system relative low-level inflow of unstable air
appears focused, and where large-scale forcing for ascent associated
with low-level convergence and warm advection may be enhanced near
the intersection of the forward propagating outflow and the stalled
remnants of prior convective outflow.  It is possible that this
could still promote the development of a more organized cluster of
storms acco*panied by potentially damaging wind gusts through
04-05Z, along the stalled boundary extending across the Nashville
vicinity of middle Tennessee.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   36978719 37218655 37008634 35578561 35078665 35938734
            36718801 36978719