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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with severe gusts and isolated large hail will
be possible tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and across
the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Additional storms with
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible from parts of the
lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians.

...Northern Plains...
On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is moving eastward
through the Dakotas, with multiple strong vorticity maxima evident
in RAP analysis. At the surface, a dryline is located across the
western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of
the dryline, within a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in
the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability,
with the RAP showing MLCAPE over much of the central and eastern
Dakotas in the 2500 to 4500 J/kg range. This will enable the
stronger storms to persist this evening, with a severe threat likely
continuing into the overnight period. Forecast sounding later this
evening along and near the instability axis show moderate deep-layer
shear and have steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This
will likely support continued supercell development this evening
into the overnight. Although a marginal tornado threat will be
possible with the strongest of cells, large hail and severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats.

...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the central U.S.,
with northwesterly mid-level flow located from the mid Missouri
Valley southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, a moist and unstable airmass is located from the Ozarks
northwestward into central and eastern Nebraska. This airmass is
forecast to remain over the central Plains and advect northward into
the mid Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. Thunderstorm
development will be likely along the resultant instability gradient.
As cells increase late this evening into the overnight period, cold
pool organization will be possible from northeast Nebraska across
Iowa and into western Illinois. The primary threats will be severe
wind gusts and isolated large hail. There is still a chance for
hailstones over 2 inches in diameter mainly within the generation
zone of any organizing convective cluster or line, from northeast
Nebraska into far western Iowa.

...Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Appalachians...
The latest mosaic radar shows a linear MCS over western Kentucky,
with additional scattered strong thunderstorms located over the
southern Appalachians. The linear MCS is located along a sharp
instability gradient, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000
to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent
associated with a subtle shortwave trough, will likely contribute to
continued convective development this evening. Recent WSR-88D VWPs
from western Kentucky to middle Tennessee have strong directional
shear in the lowest 2 kilometers with northwest mid-level flow. This
wind profile will continue to favor linear organization this evening
into the early overnight. Any line segment that can remain intact
should be acco*panied by a wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 07/31/2024