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Mesoscale Discussion 1717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern North Dakota into far
northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 272312Z - 280115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for thunderstorm development,
with a risk of damaging winds and large hail. A watch may eventually
be needed for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...As of 2300Z, the KBIS/KMBX radars show increasing
surface convergence along a NNW/SSE-oriented cold front draped
across central North Dakota. Boundary-layer cumulus is also
expanding in coverage and deepening along the front, generally
along/south of I-94. Given a warm/moist and uncapped pre-convective
air mass, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is
expected along the front in the next hour or so. 

Steep midlevel lapse rates (associated with an EML) above the
warm/moist boundary layer are contributing to moderate surface-based
instability ahead of the front. This, co*bined with around 35 kt of
west-southwesterly effective shear (oriented oblique to the front),
will support a mix of organized clusters and semi-discrete
supercells. Large hail (generally up to 1.75 inches) and locally
damaging wind gusts (up to 70 mph) will be possible (especially with
any initial semi-discrete supercells). With time, the damaging-wind
risk may increase if storms can grow locally upscale as they track
eastward. 

There is still some uncertainty on overall storm coverage and
longevity (given fairly weak large-scale ascent and gradually
increasing nocturnal static stability). Trends are being monitored
for a possible watch issuance for parts of the area this evening.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48130053 48849985 49019944 49099864 49089708 48809676
            48239683 47429765 46629885 46349982 46260062 46340100
            46470118 46790122 47370094 48130053