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Mesoscale Discussion 1715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Areas affected...Northeast UT...Southern WY...Northwest CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271906Z - 272200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph
are possible across northeast Utah, southern Wyoming, and northwest
Colorado this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows a large area of
building cumulus from central/northeast UT into northwest CO and
southern WY. This cumulus is building along and just ahead of a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moving into the region. Convective
initiation has already occurred in the few places, with thunderstorm
coverage expected to continue increasing over the next few hours as
the airmass heats and destabilizes, and the shortwave continues
eastward. 

Overall buoyancy will likely remain modest (i.e. around 500 J/kg of
MLCAPE), and the storm mode is expected to remain multicellular.
Even so, high cloud bases and moderate mid-level flow could still
result in a few strong, negatively buoyant downdrafts capable of
gusts from 45 to 65 mph across the region this afternoon and
evening.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 07/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   39100799 38290945 38861116 40851154 42670864 42490545
            40680605 39100799