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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO...

The forecast remains on track without changes. See the previous
discussion for more details.

..Wendt.. 07/18/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022/

...Synopsis...
On the northwestern periphery of the strong mid-level anticyclone, a
co*pact and deep upper low will move quickly eastward across the
Northwest and northern Rockies today. Flattening the ridge as it
passes, strong mid-level westerlies will overspread the northern
Great Basin and Rockies, supporting critical fire weather concerns.
A strong cold front may also trigger isolated thunderstorms, some
dry, across portions of Montana and Wyoming.  

...Eastern Idaho and northern Great Basin...
With the passage of the strong upper low to the north, a belt of
40-60 kt mid-level flow should bolster low-level surface winds from
northern Nevada eastward into portions of central and eastern Idaho.
Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures should easily support
widespread RH below 15% through the afternoon. The strongest winds,
and most likely corridor for sustained critical conditions, should
remains across eastern Idaho. However, given the strong flow aloft,
locally critical conditions will be possible for a few hours in the
lee of the Sierra as well.

...Central High Plains...
East of the main upper low, very warm temperatures and increasing
westerly flow should favor the development of a lee trough across
eastern Wyoming and the central High Plains. West/southwest winds
near the higher terrain should reach 15-20 mph with locally higher
gusts possible. Widespread RH below 20%, gusty winds, and very dry
fuels should support elevated fire weather conditions through the
afternoon and early evening. 

...Thunderstorms...
Plentiful heating ahead of strong height falls associated with the
deep upper low should result in isolated thunderstorms across the
northern and central Rockies this afternoon. With these high-based
and relatively fast moving storms, wetting rain potential appears
low. A few dry strikes are possible, along with gusty and erratic
winds with stronger downdrafts. However, the coverage of dry
lightning should remain below the threshold for IsoDryT conditions
given recent rainfall.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...