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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the
northern Plains vicinity on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a broad upper-level trough will extend from British
Columbia to the western Great Basin with a closed low across the
Canadian Prairies. An elongated upper-level ridge will extend from
the Southwest into the Great Lakes with a weak closed upper low near
eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas. At the surface, high pressure
will dominate the Great Lakes to the Northeast with low-pressure
across the northern Plains. A cold front will extend from the
Canadian Prairies into the Dakotas. This cold front will move east
across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska on Saturday.

...Northern Plains...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly through North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota Saturday morning and will likely have
ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms. In the wake of this activity,
low-level southerly flow is expected to strengthen in response
strengthening lee troughing and a tightening pressure gradient in
the northern Plains. This will assist in advecting rich low-level
moisture (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) across eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota. As temperatures heat well into the
80s, inhibition should erode with thunderstorms likely developing
along and ahead of the cold front by late afternoon/early evening.
Straight hodographs with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will
support supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts. During the evening, guidance is consistent with a
strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, which may promote upscale
growth into a MCS which could persist into the late evening into
northwest Minnesota. 

Additional thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the
cold front in South Dakota and Nebraska. However, this region is
well south of the stronger mid-level flow. In addition, forecast
soundings show a deeply mixed airmass across this region with
substantially less instability. Nonetheless, the inverted-v
soundings would support isolated strong to severe wind gusts with
any stronger updrafts which develop.

..Bentley.. 07/26/2024