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Mesoscale Discussion 1706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Northeastern
Virginia...Central/Southern Maryland...and far western Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251901Z - 252030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce localized wind damage, however,
watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating has occurred this morning into the
early afternoon north of a mid-level cloud shield, with surface
temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s F, allowing for some
destabilization to occur. Consequently, some isolated convective
development has ensued where enough residual low-level moisture,
characterized by dew point temperatures in the upper 60s F, remains
within a post-frontal airmass. This co*bination is yielding around
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Meanwhile, enhanced west-southwesterly flow
aloft within the right-entrance region of a mid-level jet is
resulting in effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, along with some
vertical ascent. Additional focused convective development is now
occurring along the an east-west oriented cold front in northeast
Virginia and into portions of central/southern Maryland and moving
into a localized corridor of instability peaking near 1000 J/kg
ahead of the front.

The aforementioned convective development is expected to continue
into the afternoon, with scattered storms expected, a few a which
may produce downdraft winds capable of localized damage. However,
the the expected coverage of the severe threat will likely preclude
watch issuance.

..Karstens/Smith.. 07/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   37977662 37737830 38057859 38587854 39347747 39427668
            39437596 39007563 38307564 37977662