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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

The upper-level ridge across much of the West for the past week will
continue to break down early in the forecast period as a trough
moves across southern Canada and the far northern United States. In
the wake of this trough, guidance continues to indicate another
trough, albeit much smaller, quickly moving north-northeast out of
the Pacific, across the Great Basin, and rejoining the stronger
mid-level flow across the Northern Rockies by late this weekend. By
early next week the mid-level flow pattern across much of the West
will turn zonal.

... Day 3/Thursday ...

A multi-faceted fire-weather event should unfold across the interior
Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and northern High Plains. This
region will experience the greatest impacts from the aforementioned
trough moving across the U.S.-Canada border. Winds look to remain
elevated across interior portions of Oregon and Washington as strong
mid-level flow and a modest surface-pressure gradient remains in
place. In addition to increased potential for rapid fire spread of
new fires, existing fires from any potential new fire starts from
Wednesday's dry thunderstorm event will also pose a threat for rapid
spread.

Farther east, a seasonably strong lee trough should develop across
the northern High Plains in response to the approaching mid-level
trough. Relative humidity will fall into at least the teens
coincident with the increased low-level winds. Given extremely dry
fuels, conditions appear to be co*ing together for at least locally
critical fire conditions. 

In between the two regions of hot-dry-windy conditions, a plume of
increased precipitable water will support isolated thunderstorm
develop from southwest Idaho into central Montana. Given proximity
to the mid-level jet associated with the trough, thunderstorms
should move quickly enough to limit the potential for wetting rains.
If confidence in the number of storms increases, a scattered dry
thunderstorm area may be needed in subsequent forecasts. 

... Day 4/Friday ...

As the mid-level trough continues east across the northern United
States, a period of downslope winds may develop across portions of
northern Montana. This will result in elevated-to-locally critical
fire weather conditions. These winds will also pose a threat of
rapid fire spread for any fires that ignite over the previous
several days of dry thunderstorms and hot-dry-windy conditions. 

Additionally, locally elevated-to-critical conditions will be
possible in the northern High Plains, especially if the associated
cold front is delayed in moving across the area. 

... Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday ...

The overall fire threat should lesson a bit during this time period
as co*pared to this week as the mid-level ridge beco*es established
farther east across the southern Plains. Continued hot-dry
conditions will exist, and a belt of increased mid-level moisture
may work its way into the West and increase thunderstorm potential,
but at this time, confidence in pinpointing the exact evolution of
these smaller-scale features is too low to attempt to introduce
highlights.

..Marsh.. 07/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...