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Mesoscale Discussion 1698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Areas affected...Central North Carolina and portions of southern and
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231957Z - 232230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in both thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
expected across central NC and portions of southern VA over the next
2-3 hours. Localized damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail
around 0.75-1.25" will be possible with a few of the thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Recent observational trends indicate an increase in
deep moist convective coverage across central NC and southern VA.
Substantial deep layer moisture remains in place across the
Mid-Atlantic, with estimated PWATs near or exceeding daily
climatological 90th percentiles. Subtly increasing ascent associated
with at least one upstream mid-level perturbation within
southwesterly flow aloft will continue to aid in scattered
thunderstorm development through at least late this afternoon.
Widespread updraft organization should remain limited across most
this region due to modest deep layer effective shear. However, some
stronger mid to upper flow over VA may continue to yield 30-35 kt of
effective shear along and north of the VA/NC border, with the
possibility of transient supercell structures capable of producing
marginally severe hail. The overall severe threat with this activity
will be the potential for damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph via
precipitation loading/wet microbursts, especially with any merging
linear clusters. Even with increasing thunderstorm coverage, the
severe weather threat should remain relatively localized and a WW is
not anticipated at this time.

..Barnes/Smith.. 07/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35638163 36268141 36718105 37317977 37687897 38177808
            38227585 37857569 36977600 36297742 36177767 35807795
            35457817 35207823 34827978 34858054 35308130 35638163