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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE MID SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for damaging winds, along with a minor hail threat, will
spread across southern Missouri into the Mid South later this
evening.

...Missouri/Mid South...

Dominant upper anticyclone remains anchored over CO/NM region this
evening. This feature is diverting short waves atop the ridge over
southern Canada which subsequently dig southeast into the Great
Lakes/OH Valley. One such short-wave trough has progressed into
central IL/MO early this evening and should advance to near the MS
River by 12z. Numerous thunderstorms have developed ahead of this
feature across southern MO into southern IL and an elongated
MCS-like co*plex may be evolving ahead of the front. 00z soundings
from SGF and LZK exhibit substantial buoyancy with seasonally high
PW values and adequate northwesterly flow for maintaining this
co*plex as it moves southeast toward western TN later this evening.
Damaging winds remain the primary risk.

...Elsewhere...

While large-scale forcing is quite weak atop the ridge over the
northern US, isolated thunderstorms are drifting southeast across
southern SK/MB with one potentially severe storm now crossing the
international border into Divide County ND. Have extended the MRGL
Risk into this portion of the northern Plains to account for this
threat.

A few gusty storms will spread across northeast UT toward southeast
ID over the next few hours but this activity is not expected to be
particularly robust.

..Darrow.. 07/18/2022