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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley vicinity
will shift east over the Northeast/Atlantic coast on Thursday. At
the same time, an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest
will track east near the international border and northern Rockies.
This will push the upper ridge oriented from the central Rockies to
northern Plains east toward the Upper Midwest.

A cold front will develop south and east across the Ohio Valley and
the Northeast. Ongoing showers and widespread cloudiness will mute
destabilization ahead of the front across the Northeast. While
somewhat stronger destabilization is possible across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley, vertical shear will be weak, limiting potential
for organized severe storms. 

Further across parts of central/eastern MT, 50s F dewpoints and
steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values up to 1000
J/kg. Strong heating and increasing ascent with the approach of the
upper trough will allow for scattered thunderstorm development over
higher terrain during the afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest,
but deep mixing and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles
suggest gusty outflow winds will be possible. A cold front will
sweep across the region during the evening/overnight, but increasing
inhibition with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2024