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Mesoscale Discussion 1503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Areas affected...extreme northeastern Montana and far northwestern
North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172325Z - 180100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A lone supercell in southern Saskatchewan may cross the
international border and pose a localized risk for isolated
hail/damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty on the longevity of any severe
threat remains high and a weather watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC, regional radar was tracking a lone
supercell across far southern Saskatchewan near the North
Dakota/Montana border. Current radar and satellite trends suggest
this storm may cross the international border in the next hour.
Surface obs and SPC mesoanalysis to the south of the storm indicate
a warm (90-100F+ temps) and potentially unstable environment.
However, surface dewpoints are likely overestimated with satellite
based PWAT and strong mixing suggesting more reasonable values in
the upper 50s to low 60s F. Modified RAP soundings suggests lower
MLCAPE (approx 1000 J/kg) and higher inhibition south of the border
which could result in a weakening of the storm as it approaches.
However, some severe risk may linger given 40-50 kt of effective
shear and recent Environment Canada reports of severe weather. Given
the uncertainty, a weather watch is unlikely, though a localized
severe risk may occur for a couple hours this evening.

..Lyons/Grams.. 07/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   49030388 49020292 48920262 48770250 48530248 48220274
            47990324 47980368 48080401 48410420 48690423 49020414
            49030388