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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible early this evening
over portions of North Dakota, southern and eastern North Carolina,
as well as western Arizona to the lower Colorado River Valley.

...North Dakota...
A small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms continued moving
south across eastern ND at 01z, with a history of severe hail and
wind gusts.  A weak mid-level impulse continues to provide subtle
large-scale ascent as it moves southeast near the international
border, and the downstream environment will remain strongly unstable
for the next few hours.  With around 30 kts of deep-layer shear,
sufficient storm organization is expected to persist for a continued
severe threat through the remainder of this evening.

...Western Arizona and Vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorms continue moving generally south within a
weakly buoyant environment with a well-mixed boundary layer (LCL
heights over 3500 meters).  Storms have not shown a tendency to
cluster thus far, however any merging outflows that can develop will
have severe wind potential through this evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Have trimmed the Marginal Risk and associated wind/tornado
probabilities to in the immediate vicinity of the storms extending
from near Elizabeth City (KECG) to Clinton NC (KCTZ). Latest
mesoanalysis shows moderate bouyancy and 30-40 kts of shear in the
near-storm environment.  Occasional weak/transient cyclonic shear
has been noted in a couple of these storms, and effective SRH of 100
m2/s2 would support some continued (though low probability) risk for
a brief tornado or gusty winds this evening.

..Bunting.. 07/23/2024