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Mesoscale Discussion 1695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Areas affected...northeastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222133Z - 222300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorm may remain capable of severe hail
for a few hours this afternoon into the early evening. Confidence in
storm evolution is low but a WW is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...As of 2120 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered
thunderstorms have developed along a subtle confluence boundary
stretching from near Minot ND to International Falls MN. Aided by
weak forcing for ascent from a subtle passing shortwave trough,
these storms have recently intensified with reports of measured
severe hail. Warm surface temperatures and upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints are supporting strong destabilization (3000+ J/kg of
MLCAPE) despite only modest mid-level lapse rates. Vertical shear,
as sampled by area VADs, is modestly favorable for a sustained
severe risk around 25-30 kt. However, some mid and upper-level
enhancement form the passing shortwave may allow for brief
organization and transient supercell structures with the strongly
buoyant updrafts. 

Given the degree of buoyancy and the potential for at least
short-lived storm organization, the risk for severe hail (1-2 in)
and an isolated damaging gust may persist for a couple hours late
this afternoon into the early evening. Confidence in organized
convective evolution is low as the background forcing away from the
boundary remains limited. This suggests a WW is unlikely, but
convective trends will continue to be monitored should a locally
greater severe risk evolve.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 07/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48229618 47789664 47609744 47599779 47609811 47659868
            47809914 48079950 48439955 48809910 48969815 48939737
            48839664 48829653 48499613 48229618