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Mesoscale Discussion 1689
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Front Range of Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 210219Z - 210315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A pair of supercells moving south along the I-25 corridor
may pose a risk for hail and severe gusts for a couple more hours
tonight. The longevity and spatial extent of the threat is
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC, a pair of supercells have evolved
within the upslope flow regime across eastern CO. These storms have
produced reports of measured severe hail and wind gusts over the
last hour. Extrapolation places these storms near Denver in the next
hour. Around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-40 kt of northerly
deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for storm organization this
evening. Some risk for severe hail and damaging gusts could continue
as these storms track along and south of the Metro this evening. A
co*plicating factor is the presence of westward surging outflow from
prior convection over the adjacent plains. With the loss of diurnal
heating and cooler surface temperatures post outflow, surface
stabilization is expected. However, it remains unclear how long it
will take for the decrease in instability to affect these storms.
Convective trends are being monitored, but the severe risk could
persist for another couple of hours in and south of the Denver metro
before weakening later this evening.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 07/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40310533 40460510 40410478 40200442 39690435 39050461
            39010472 38950511 39250538 40180552 40310533