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Mesoscale Discussion 1501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Areas affected...Southern Missouri to northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 172010Z - 172215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southern Missouri into
northern Arkansas through the afternoon will be capable of severe
winds and large hail. Convective coverage remains somewhat
uncertain, but a watch is possible if an organized severe threat
beco*es apparent.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of discrete cells has developed across
northern AR, one of which took on loose supercell characteristics
prior to weakening. This activity is developing along a diffuse
outflow boundary that is draped south from a surface low over
central MO. The air mass ahead of this low continues to undergo
destabilization as temperatures warm into the low 90s amid upper
60s/low 70s dewpoints. A recent 18 UTC sounding from SGF sampled
this evolution and features 1600 J/kg MLCAPE with limited
inhibition. Lift in the vicinity of the low is promoting agitated
cumulus with a few taller towers discernible on low-level water
vapor imagery, suggesting convective initiation is possible in the
co*ing hour. Although the regional hodographs feature several
weaknesses in the flow, effective bulk shear near 30 knots may be
supportive of at least some storm organization. However, as the
northern AR cell demonstrated, storm longevity is questionable.
Regardless, the stronger updraft pulses should at least pose a
transient threat for damaging winds and large hail. Thunderstorm
coverage ahead and along the front also remains uncertain given the
stronger synoptic forcing for ascent is departing the region to the
northeast, but trends will be monitored for the potential of a more
organized severe risk.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36079364 36719375 37599342 37809296 37979232 37889139
            37809075 37539010 36508946 35758982 35329103 35149234
            35429317 36079364