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Mesoscale Discussion 1688
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeast colorado and far southwest
Kansas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 202216Z - 202345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and hail will be possible with isolated
thunderstorms this evening. A WW appears unlikely though conditions
will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...As of 2210 UTC regional radar imagery showed isolated
thunderstorms ongoing across the foothills of southeast CO and
farther east over the High Plains. Over the last hour, storms have
gradually increased in coverage and intensity within the weak
northeasterly upslope flow regime. While not overly robust, modest
mid-level lapse rates and 50s F dewpoints are supporting moderate
buoyancy. Flow aloft is also not overly strong, but 25-30 kt of
effective shear should be sufficient for brief storm organization
with multicells and transient supercell structures.

As storms continue to develop they should move off the higher
terrain this evening. Isolated damaging gusts and some hail are
possible with the stronger cores. However, storm organization
appears transient and the lack of greater forcing aloft will keep
coverage limited. This should keep the severe risk marginal and a WW
is unlikely.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 07/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   39420311 39350248 38340163 37210161 36950211 36880319
            37000450 37900496 38840497 39190460 39420311