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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

...Synopsis...
By early next week, mid to upper-level troughing is anticipated over
the Pacific Northwest, while a ridge remains over the Intermountain
West, Great Basin, and Southwest. A shallow plume of mid level
moisture will remain within most of this ridge. Later in the week,
by D5/Wednesday, the upper trough will begin to deepen over the
north Pacific and increasing southwesterly mid to upper-level flow
will acco*pany it from western OR through southern and eastern WA.
As this trough progresses eastward D6/Thursday, this belt of
increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft will begin to impact
northern ID and MT. An acco*panying cold front will follow it.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Similar to D2/Sunday, the threat of at least isolated dry
thunderstorms will continue across the northwestern Great Basin,
southeastern OR, and portions of western ID D3/Monday, where PWATS
will range from 0.7-0.9" and subtle ascent is expected with
mid-level perturbations moving within the weak southwesterlies
aloft. This trend will continue into D4/Tuesday, with an expansion
of isolated dry thunderstorms over the Upper Snake Plain, and as far
north as northern MT.

...Winds and Relative Humidity...
Surface winds will begin to increase in the lee of the Cascades in
OR, and across the Modoc Plateau of CA, D5/Wednesday, as increasing
mid-level flow acco*panying the Pacific trough begins to translate
to the surface. A small area of 40 percent Critical probabilities
has been added for these regions, where already receptive fuels will
continue to cure under the influence of the upper ridge. Then, by
D6/Thursday, a mid-level jet and relatively dry cold front will
likely impact northern MT resulting in increasing westerly surface
winds. RH within this region may drop to below critical thresholds.
Critical probabilities of 40 percent have also been introduced for
MT. Higher Critical probabilities have not been introduced yet given
lower confidence in stronger wind speeds.

..Barnes.. 07/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...