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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Valid 201700Z - 211200Z

...Update...
Only very minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm area across the northern Great Basin and Northwest.
Shallow mid-level moisture atop a well mixed boundary layer is still
anticipated near the aforementioned areas later this afternoon
through early Sunday morning. Subtle ascent acco*panying a mid to
upper-level trough, along with orographic lift, should result in
isolated dry thunderstorms developing. Further southeast across
central NV and the rest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, slower
moving thunderstorms and showers are more likely to result in
wetting rains. Please see the previous discussion for additional
details.

..Barnes.. 07/20/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/

...Synopsis...
A large upper ridge will dominate the western US through the
forecast period within a relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern.
A broad Pacific trough will move onshore to the west of the ridge,
bringing isolated thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. To the
east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern
Rockies and Intermountain west with seasonable monsoon moisture.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon.

...Northern Great Basin and Northwest...
To the west of the upper ridge, subtle ascent will gradually
overspread portions of the northern Great Basin and Pacific
Northwest ahead of the advancing upper trough. PWAT values are
forecast to increase through the day, reaching 0.8 to 1 inches by
this evening. Continued moisture advection should allow for gradual
mid-level destabilization and dry thunderstorm development along the
higher terrain by mid afternoon. 

Isolated thunderstorms over the northern Great Basin should slowly
expand in coverage to the northwest from late in the afternoon and
into the overnight period. Enhanced flow aloft will allow for
moderate storm motions of 20-25 kt atop relatively dry boundary
layer. This will likely support dry thunderstorm potential through
the overnight hours despite increasing mid-level moisture. Given the
potential for lightning over very receptive fuels (95th percentile
ERCs), the ISODRYT area was expanded westward into portions of
west/southwest OR.

...Northern Rockies...
East of the ridge, confidence in dry storms is lower, as flow aloft
will be weaker and deeper monsoonal moisture is expected to be in
place. The co*bination of slower speeds and higher PWATs suggests
storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential
for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm
coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some
threat for lightning ignitions. However, the best storm coverage
appears displaced to the east, away from the more receptive fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...